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1001楼#
发布于:2015-12-29 10:47
Contents
Preface
1 Introduction
1.1 Background
1.2 Scope
1.3 Notation
1.4 Distributions related to the Normal distribution
1.5 Quadratic forms
1.6 Estimation
1.7 Exercises
2 Model Fitting
2.1 Introduction
2.2 Examples
2.3 Some principles ofstatistica l modelling
2.4 Notation and coding for explanatory variables
2.5 Exercises
3 Exponential Family and Generalized Linear Models
3.1 Introduction
3.2 Exponential family of distributions
3.3 Properties ofdistribution s in the exponential family
3.4 Generalized linear models
3.5 Examples
3.6 Exercises
4 Estimation
4.1 Introduction
4.2 Example: Failure times for pressure vessels
4.3 Maximum likelihood estimation
4.4 Poisson regression example
4.5 Exercises
5 Inference
5.1 Introduction
5.2 Sampling distribution for score statistics
? 2002 by Chapman & Hall/CRC
5
5.3 Taylor series approximations
5.4 Sampling distribution for maximum likelihood estimators
5.5 Log-likelihood ratio statistic
5.6 Sampling distribution for the deviance
5.7 Hypothesis testing
5.8 Exercises
6 Normal Linear Models
6.1 Introduction
6.2 Basic results
6.3 Multiple linear regression
6.4 Analysis of variance
6.5 Analysis ofc ovariance
6.6 General linear models
6.7 Exercises
7 Binary Variables and Logistic Regression
7.1 Probability distributions
7.2 Generalized linear models
7.3 Dose response models
7.4 General logistic regression model
7.5 Goodness offi t statistics
7.6 Residuals
7.7 Other diagnostics
7.8 Example: Senility and WAIS
7.9 Exercises
8 Nominal and Ordinal Logistic Regression
8.1 Introduction
8.2 Multinomial distribution
8.3 Nominal logistic regression
8.4 Ordinal logistic regression
8.5 General comments
8.6 Exercises
9 Count Data, Poisson Regression and Log-Linear Models
9.1 Introduction
9.2 Poisson regression
9.3 Examples ofco ntingency tables
9.4 Probability models for contingency tables
9.5 Log-linear models
9.6 Inference for log-linear models
9.7 Numerical examples
9.8 Remarks
9.9 Exercises
? 2002 by Chapman & Hall/CRC
6
10 Survival Analysis
10.1 Introduction
10.2 Survivor functions and hazard functions
10.3 Empirical survivor function
10.4 Estimation
10.5 Inference
10.6 Model checking
10.7 Example: remission times
10.8 Exercises
11 Clustered and Longitudinal Data
11.1 Introduction
11.2 Example: Recovery from stroke
11.3 Repeated measures models for Normal data
11.4 Repeated measures models for non-Normal data
11.5 Multilevel models
11.6 Stroke example continued
11.7 Comments
11.8 Exercises
Software
References
? 2002 by Chapman & Hall/CRC
7
Preface
Statistical tools for analyzing data are developing rapidly so that the 1990
edition ofthis book is now out ofdate.
The original purpose ofthe book was to present a unified theoretical and
conceptual framework for statistical modelling in a way that was accessible
to undergraduate students and researchers in other fields. This new edition
has been expanded to include nominal (or multinomial) and ordinal logistic
regression, survival analysis and analysis oflongitudinal and clustered data.
Although these topics do not fall strictly within the definition of generalized
linear models, the underlying principles and methods are very similar and
their inclusion is consistent with the original purpose ofthe book.
The new edition relies on numerical methods more than the previous edition
did. Some ofthe calculations can be performed with a spreadsheet while others
require statistical software. There is an emphasis on graphical methods for
exploratory data analysis, visualizing numerical optimization (for example,
ofthe likelihood function) and plotting residuals to check the adequacy of
models.

Introduction
1.1 Background
This book is designed to introduce the reader to generalized linear models;
these provide a unifying framework for many commonly used statistical techniques.
They also illustrate the ideas ofstatistical modelling.
The reader is assumed to have some familiarity with statistical principles
and methods. In particular, understanding the concepts ofestimation, sampling
distributions and hypothesis testing is necessary. Experience in the use
oft-tests, analysis ofv ariance, simple linear regression and chi-squared tests of
independence for two-dimensional contingency tables is assumed. In addition,
some knowledge ofmatrix algebra and calculus is required.
The reader will find it necessary to have access to statistical computing
facilities. Many statistical programs, languages or packages can now perform
the analyses discussed in this book. Often, however, they do so with a different
program or procedure for each type of analysis so that the unifying structure
is not apparent.
Some programs or languages which have procedures consistent with the
approach used in this book are: Stata, S-PLUS, Glim, Genstat and SYSTAT.
This list is not comprehensive as appropriate modules are continually
being added to other programs.
In addition, anyone working through this book may find it helpful to be able
to use mathematical software that can perform matrix algebra, differentiation
and iterative calculations.
1.2 Scope
The statistical methods considered in this

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发布于:2016-01-06 09:14
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1003楼#
发布于:2016-01-06 17:05
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1004楼#
发布于:2016-01-08 04:54
    A股再次熔断!人民币汇率持续下跌民众兑1万美元需多掏4000元

    又提前收盘!开盘不足半小时 A股再次熔断

    重点:1月7日早盘,沪深两市跳空低开后没多久,9点43分,沪深300跌幅超过54,周内第二次触发熔断,暂停交易15分钟,9点59分,沪深300跌幅扩大至73,提前收盘。本周一A股暴跌,沪深300跌幅触及70,触发熔断,下午1点33分提前收盘。盘面上,全线皆墨。国防军工领跌7.577,计算机、电子、机械设备、有色金属等板块跌幅居前均逾71。跌幅最小的银行板块也跌逾39。题材上,亦是全部熄火。人工智能指数领跌8.963,网络安全、智能交通、锂电池等指数跌幅居前。

    沪深两市仅49只个股上涨,涨停个股27只,2504只个股下跌,跌停个股200余只。A股熔断标的指数为沪深300指数。熔断阈值为53和71两档,指数触发51的熔断后,熔断范围内的证券将暂停交易15分钟;如果全天收盘前15分钟触发58或全天任何时间触发78,将暂停交易至收市。

    新年伊始,人民币汇率仍旧延续下跌走势。最低值不断被创新。6日人民币中间价较收盘价再度大幅下调。

    中间价下调145个点至6.5314,创2011年4月以来新低。离岸人民币(CNH)开盘后大跌,最低破6.7关口,至6.6337,截至昨22时23分记者发稿时,美元兑人民币汇率报6.7078,贬值0.930,刷新五年以来最低位。

    成都张女士儿子在美国攻读硕士学位,她给记者算了一笔账:

    据中国外汇交易中心公布的数据,昨天,银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价为:1美元兑换人民币6.5314元。按照昨天人民币兑换美元的汇率中间价6.5314计算,兑换1万美元需要人民币65314元,而放在2015年初则仅需花费61248元。

    显然,因人民币兑美元汇率的贬值,留学生兑换1万美元将不得不比一年前多花4066元。难怪张女士感叹我去年1月那时候换钱的时候咋没想到多换一些呢?哎!

    人民币汇率贬值后,会对人民的生活,炒股、进出口、就业、国内物价、出国留学等方面均会产生重大影响。对于各类人该如何应对,手头该留点什么?

    普通人:不出国影响不大

    就普通人而言持有人民币,影响你购买力的还是通胀水平,不出国干啥的贬值对个人似乎没啥影响。

    人民币贬值后,有没有什么好的投资建议呢?业内专家指出,如果想出去玩的话,现在欧元绝对是比较划算的兑换时点,但是投资的话,欧元不合适,还是美元投资价值高。

    此外,前年中国大妈热炒的黄金,近来表现不俗。考虑到全球央行宽松浪潮再起,手中握点黄金,也是一个不错的选择。

    股民:操作难度加大

    刚刚经历了熔断的A股,现在是一地鸡毛,人心涣散。好不容易,昨天又来个人民币贬值,人民币贬值总体而言利空股市。

    当然也不是说人民币贬值,整个股市就会大跌。也有一些利好的板块嘛,比如纺织服装,出口类企业和板块。

    因为人民币贬值一方面有利于公司降低成本,提高产品竞争力,企业将拿到更多订单,另一方面,有利于出口型企业获得汇兑收益。
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